Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Middle Class Fantasies

The year is 2011 and it is almost Diwali. Government is planning to finally pass the Lokpal bill and present it to the nation as a Diwali gift. Speculation is rife on how the final bill is going to look like. When the bill eventually passes it is a compromise between different parties and actual bill is a lot closer to the NCPRI version of the bill. Lower bureaucracy is included but under the CVC, however, Lokpal can monitor CVC on this. Citizen's charter and grievance redressal is to be brought in with a new bill and Lokayukta decision has been left on to states with just guidelines given to states on model Lokayukta based on Karntaka's system. Team Anna has been told to campaign with various state governments to make them individually pass Lokayukta bill based on center's recommendations. There is lot of acrimony and noise from Team Anna regarding the final bill about how it is a betrayal and there is talk of another agitation but eventually they agree to the government bill and wisely decide that this is much better than having nothing.

Now the year is 2013 and it is March, Team Anna has been working for over a year with various state governments to try to make them pass Lokayukta bill with limited success. Lot of states like UP, Guj, AP, MP, TN refuse to pass the Team Anna version of bill or refuse to make any changes in the existing Lokayukta system in the state. Some states like Mayavati of UP even refuse to talk to Team Anna. With prolonged frustrating discussion and battle in every state over mechanism of appointment of Lokayukta to jurisdiction of Lokayukta to powers given to Lokayukta Team Anna grows ever frustrated with the system. Also earlier their attempt  at bringing in electoral reforms with agitation in August 2012 had been met with limited success. This time the government had decided to not listen to them at all and refused to even talk with Team Anna despite weeks of agitation. This time Team Anna had smartly decided to go on a padyatra leading to Delhi instead of hunger strike which was losing its effect. Increasingly belligerent and angry government only relented and agreed to talks with Team Anna when the padyatra with approximately 25,000 people was about to reach Delhi and there was an IB report that crowed could go out of hand. In the end government gave only promises to Team Anna of speeding up the bill to weed out criminals from the election process and to make funding for elections more transparent. 

It is May 2013 now and it is clear to Team Anna now that government is not going to cooperate with them and their strategy of agitation from outside for every kind of reform and change is not working. There is increasingly talk among civil society, media, and other influential personalities of the need for Team Anna to join politics if they wish to bring in any kind of meaningful change in the polity and reform the system. There is a rumor going around that Arvind Kejrival and Kiran Bedi are seriously thinking about standing for election in 2014 but Anna is not in favor of it. Around this time a huge defense scam breaks out and this time PM is directly implicated to have known all about it and not done anything about it. There is a huge uproar in parliament and opposition are now directly asking for removal of PM and some even calling for fresh election. Parliament doesn't function for weeks as opposition demand removal of PM. There is a talk of Rahul taking over and Manmohan stepping aside. But eventually congress decide against this and call for fresh election to be held in September in five phases.

Eventually the rumor turns out to be true and Arvind and Ms. Bedi openly say to media that they are thinking of contesting election and forming their own party. First it is rumored that Anna has agreed to support and campaign for Arvind and Ms. Bedi from outside but then is eventually convinced to actually stand for election himself. Eventually Arvind Kejrival announces in a press conference that he is forming his own party and they are going to contest in 150 parliamentary seats.

As soon as Team Anna announce that they are entering politics attacks start coming at them from left, right, and center. First charge at them leveled by some congress MPs and Lalu is that this is what they were always after. They always wanted power. Lalu declares that "bhrastachar to bahana tha. In logo ko power chahiye tha. Power ke liye dikhava kar rahe he. Mene bola tha yahi first time 2010 me hi. Me pehechan gaya tha in logo ko. Ye to power ke liye sab kuch dikhawa he bhai." Team Anna refutes and says that they are in it to make a genuine change and not in it for power or money. Other attacks start coming in soon. After the candidates list is announced by Team Anna with inclusion of some leftist activists, BJP smarting from repeated snubs by Team Anna cries foul and calls the Team Anna party to be the official political party of the Maoists with anti-national agenda. Attempt is made to separate middle class from Team  Anna by repeatedly saying that Team Anna is full of Maoists sympathizers and and anti-national elements. Also Anna is forced to declare publicly that he has no intention to bring in prohibition in the whole country and it was a specific solution for the local problem in his village.

Team Anna meanwhile runs a beautiful campaign somewhat like the Obama campaign with college kids and internet activists in huge number voluntarily campaigning for them tirelessly. College kids and middle class professionals in cities go to knock on door to door to campaign for Team Anna. Every rally organized by Team Anna draws in thousands of spontaneous crowds without any incentives especially in the urban areas. There is a huge battle taking place on on the internet between BJP supporters on the internet and Team Anna supporters (Congress has virtually no presence on the net). Twitter is awash with campaigning and fighting from both sides. BJP supporters dig out lot of dirt on them, most of it located to the Maoist connection and some old corruption cases against some candidates. They also point out the fact that Team Anna has stopped saying Vande Mataram in an apparent bid to woo the Muslim voters and how Team Anna's party is going to be same like Congress with minority appeasement and corruption. Media too questions what is the vision they have of India, what foreign policy they intend to pursue, what is their strategy to combat Naxal menace. The question about Naxals is asked again and again and whether they really have any sympathy towards their cause or are they going to go hard at them. Arvind and Anna finally clarify that they do not have any sympathy or support for the Naxals and that their methods are completely wrong. They (naxals) should join mainstream politics like us if they want to bring in change, but they also clarify that military tactic is not going to win this war for us, development work in the tribal area is the key. Still opposition keeps calling them Maoist sympathizers.

The next attack on Team Anna comes from the left about the funding of their election and how they are allegedly funded by foreign governments and big corporations to further their agenda. BJP and congress also jump in declaring "public deserves to know where the money is coming from". Arvind gives media persons the URL of his websites where he has detailed the source of his funding and terms his as the only political party in the history of India with such transparent funding policy and dares Congress and BJP to do the same. Campaign is going very well for Team Anna though intellectuals are still skeptical about the Team Anna's chances in the election and most saying they are not likely to win any kind of significant number of seats. The media has dubbed this election as the battle between Urban India with the Rural India, the battle of New India with the old, battle between India and Bharat. Media has so far been sympathetic to Team Anna. Internet Hindus RT each other on how media has devoted 56% of their time on Team Anna's party. Some intellectuals accuse media of being biased too. Team Anna has also used media brilliantly using every kind of symbolic opportunity. Anna himself draws huge crowds but also his full speeches are telecast live on TV with great enthusiasm and shouting from the crowds. Team Anna uses technology brilliantly too with giant screens being set up in many cities for people to come and watch Anna speeches and cheer for him. Intellectuals are generally ambivalent about Team Anna but do fear the leftist leaning ideology of the party and fear stalling reforms and anti-industry policies. But they conclude with their characteristic smugness that Team Anna are not going to win much to matter and declare that drawing crowds in urban area is one thing and winning election is quite another. 

Just as the crucial second phase of polling is nearby the first media gaffe of Team Anna occurs when a prominent Bollywood celebrity (who were till now smartly kept away or controlled by Team Anna) campaigning for them says something derogatory about the congress but more importantly about country itself with everybody-in-the-country-is-corrupt rant which draws widespread criticism form congress and media for bad language and for being unpatriotic. At the same time India TV comes up with a footage of Arvind and Kiran sitting on a stage in a Maharastra village with a plastic flag kept nearby touching the ground and passerby even stepping on part of it to walk. Everybody jumps on the controversy. Incredibly Hindi media and some part of English media turn against Team Anna suddenly. They accuse Team Anna of being arrogant and to have gone too far. Arvind and Kiran too appear increasingly angry with certain section of media and constant silly controversies. It appears that the campaign is suddenly going horribly wrong. Intellectual debates on English media conclude that with this controversy so close to election it is going to hurt them and "they are not going to win even 5 seats with such attitude". 

Eventually the polling ends and everybody awaits with bated breath for the results. So far the race is still between Congress and BJP and Team Anna is still thought to win no more than 10 seats at best. Visibly relaxed Kejriwal now smiles for camera and says we are going to win much more than that, but so does everybody else. Just as the last phase of poling is over the opinion polls are out and they all declare BJP to likely emerge as single largest party but not outright majority. But most importantly most of the opinion polls give Team Anna anywhere between 20 to 40 seats and dub them possible game changer. BJP suddenly start sweet talk publicly about Team Anna for possible post-poll alliance and so too some congress members. Animosity is gone. Team Anna has gone through their trial by fire and now are accepted serious parties.

Few weeks before Diwali results are out and to everyone's surprise Team Anna wins as much as 53 seats and emerge as second biggest party in 30 more seats. Their strategy of concentrating on Gujarat and Maharastra and urban areas in other states pays off big time. They become the single largest party in Maharastra almost sweeping the state. The whole Vidarbha region is wiped clean by them, particularly area surrounded by Anna's village. Anna wins with the record 98% of votes in his constituency. In Bombay city too they win significant number of seats, except shivsena stronghold of Thane and some other areas. NCP is severely depleted with constant attacking of Pawar by Team Anna for corruption and inflation caused by his food ministry. Team Anna also sweeps Delhi. Many other urban areas are also won by Team Anna. In Gujarat Team Anna becomes the second largest party with Modi winning by just one seat and Congress being reduced to just one seat. Face of smiling triumphant Arvind, Kiran, and Anna is seen on all news channels whole day with congratulations and smiling interviews with some media behaving as if they have won the election. Media declares that "New India" has won. Everybody forgets in this commotion that BJP has emerged as the single largest party with congress suffering major loses, particularly in north. Divide of urban middle class vote hurts BJP but they still emerge as single largest.

Ultimately Team Anna refuses to support BJP to form the government citing communal nature of BJP and chooses to remain in opposition. BJP forms the government with support of other allies like AIDMK. But Team Anna do mange to get some good work done by having significant numbers in parliament. As soon as new parliament session starts Kiran Bedi comes up with private member's bill for police reforms and despite much opposition to losing control over police by the politicians the bill is passed with some compromises. Eventually other reforms are pushed by Team Anna. BJP gives good support to Team Anna in the background and help them pass these bills. Decentralization of power is pushed by Team Anna with direct election of mayors of the cities by the people with power and accountability for all the needs of the cities like roads, water, sanitation; a campaign promise to middle class voters by Team Anna. In villages  Panchayats are also given more power and accountability is fixed on them for certain village duties.

Eventually the real game changer comes in 2014 when Team Anna decides to contest Maharastra assembly elections and emerge as the single largest party with congress-NCP being second. Anna eventually transforms much of the rural Maharastra the same way he transformed his village all those years ago and farmers suicides in the Vidarbha becomes the thing of the past. Decline of Mumbai is also halted with builder-politician nexus being broken and much improved civic response. 

And thus India became three-party democracy from being two-party democracy. In the future Team Anna party becomes secular right party of the middle class.

2 comments:

  1. If you truly believe in what you have written, I think you need to revisit the article from start to finish. Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anna's village is not in vidarbha but in marathwada

    ReplyDelete