The choice before them

A few days ago Rajnath Singh, India's home minister tweeted a series of tweets about religious conversion in India. He tweeted "Can social service not be performed in India without resorting to conversion?" and in another tweet "Why cant all religions prosper without promoting conversion in India?" and "How can a country like India allow changes in its demographic profile and character?". I don't have any problem with this line of argument. Religion at a community level is about identity and culture and no country would like to lose its identity and culture. But the thing is is conversion really changing the demographic profile of India? The data seems to suggest not.

The Christian population in India was 2% in 1951, it reached a high of 2.60% in 1970; after that it has fluctuated and reached 2.5% in 2011 which is the latest census figure we have. So the Christian population has gone up marginally by 0.5% in 60 years. Clearly it doesn't look like there is any danger of change in demographic profile of India through conversion since the Christians are the most active religious group in conversion. Muslim population has increased by 5% in 60 years but that is based on high birth rates of Muslims as majority of them tend to live in poorer backward states with high birth rate and because of migration from Bangladesh. And recent tweets of Rajnath Singh inspecting Bangla border seem to suggest  that he is on the job on that front.

On twitter I have seen many reports shared of missionaries and proselytizers bragging about how they have saved the soul of millions of people or how they have introduced Jesus to so many millions or how they have built so many number of churches, but the fact remains that in the past 60 years overall population of Christians in India hasn't changed much. So clearly these people are just bragging like you do in propaganda to rally your troops or to attract donations. Whatever be the case the right wing organizations in India like RSS, VHP etc need to not waste their time and effort behind the bogey of conversion and in re-conversions. They may claim that it is because of their efforts that major demographic shift hasn't happened already but I don't think that is true as they haven't been so active in the past. Instead they can spend their time and effort in many other ways that would genuinely help Hindus, BJP and India as a whole.

For example, I am really happy that VHP has recently launched a new campaign to end caste bias and untouchability. If it succeeds, this can make a huge difference in lives of millions of people. It can unlock the growth potential of hinterlands and large swaths of country and millions would prosper because of it. It can change the political and economic scenario of India. And this would also remove the primary cause for conversion.

There are many such areas where large RW organizations with their huge volunteer base and resources can make a huge difference. For example in education we not only have a high drop out ratio of both boys and girls but those who are in school also do not get a quality education. Studies have shown that in govt. schools many students in 5th, 6th, 7th grade are unable to read and write at the level of 2nd grade. Studies by NGOs like Pratham have shown that just a basic one to two hour coaching in the evening after school can make a dramatic difference in learning outcomes. And every year's worth of education and delaying drop out rate increases by few percent the amount of money the child will earn later in his life every year. So just few hours of effort can change the entire outcome of the life of a child.

In health there are numerous such things that can be done that change millions of lives. For example ensuring all the children in the villages get all the essential vaccines. Studies have shown that the health and diet of mother during pregnancy and the first year of child can dramatically alter child's mental and physical development and his earning capacity throughout his life. Female cadres can assure good nutrition and health of mother and child by advising on diet and nutrition and taking the mother and child for hospital visits. They can teach the benefits of having hospital birth and how to maintain good reproductive health. They can explain and teach about kinds of family planning methods and why it is important. There are just hundreds of things like hygiene, water borne diseases, malaria, etc that even a non-trained person can teach about. These things can bring about a huge change in the quality of life of people in rural area.

They can also help teach different farming techniques and share knowledge gained from elsewhere. They can organize villagers and teach them to build small check dams and water storage facilities like wells and artificial lake etc.

They can participate in swacch bharat and clean important public places in cities like railway stations, public hospitals, etc.

For an economy to grow it requires capital, land and labor. Modi with his foreign trips and making right climate for investment is trying to facilitate capital for investment, his land bill is to take care of land issues. The RW groups by focusing on health, education of people can facilitate labor, the vital ingredient for growth. And most importantly it will repel perception that Modi govt. is not pro-poor. Because trying to help people by creating jobs might seem like too indirect for most rural people. They need direct immediate help and that's where these RW organizations can make a huge difference.

This way RW groups can bring change personally in the lives of millions of people, help the nation grow and ensure BJP victory in upcoming state and national elections. We will need healthy educated populous for economic growth and we will need rapid economic growth to repel any external threat we may face. Or the RW groups can just keep fighting imaginary threats within India and keep reveling in 2000 year old real or imagined past glories of India rather than working to make India glorious now and in future.

Jai Hind.

The future of Modi and India

Trying to ascribe motives to political victories and defeats is a tricky business in India. After the LS election there was a lot of talk of aspirational India, a belief that we are finally out of the mai-baap sarkar politics where government is seen as giver of things. That people has started to dare of dreaming jobs and economy and government is just a facilitator of that. That more often than not it is better that government gets out of the way rather than depending on government for your sustenance. Lot of people thought this because of the way Modi won, the magnitude of his victory and the way he campaigned. Because he symbolizes this new brand of politics where people are not dependent on government for day-to-day things, that government is not a giver of things but just a facilitator. Modi's often repeated slogan of 'Minimum government Maximum governance' also seemed to suggest this (even thought he may not have been able to live up to it many times). There was a lot of general euphoria in the free marketers and economic right (and social right) middle class. There was a feeling that we are finally out of the dark days of congress, DMK, AIDMK, SP, BSP etc where government promises some free things before elections like TV, laptop, free electricity, cheap wheat, rice and then after election does a poor attempt (with lots of corruption) of delivering these things. Then they sit smugly for five years claiming it has done its job neglecting its real job of building decent infrastructure, governance, administration, effective regulation.

However, if experts thought that people needed break from all that then Delhi election proves that it was probably only partially true. Because in a state which has the highest per capita income in India the same aspirational voter chose AAP which is as socialist and leftist as it gets. May be people just needed more efficient socialist government. Yes it's true I might be making the same mistake of ascribing motive to a local election victory which might be decided on a lot of local issues. It may be that people decided that Kiran Bedi is also socialist but Kejriwal is more efficient at it. Or that in a small city state what matters is delivery of local governance, that it was more a municipal election.

But given the magnitude of victory and the kind of ultra left wing socialist language of AAP where every industrialist rich person is 'chor' or the only good politician is the one giving free stuff one can't help but feel that this victory sends the message that voters in large parts of India still want socialist government, an efficient corruption free socialist government who can crack down on local corruption but socialist nonetheless. May be Modi's victory also on the large part was because people thought he would crack down on local corruptions, that he would make doctors come to duty on time in rural hospitals, that he would make teachers teach properly in government schools, that he would remove inefficiencies and corruption from government schemes like PDS, MGNREGA, etc. May be Modi's strong leader image made them think that he would deliver at the local level and remove inefficiencies and corruption. May be they wanted efficient, in-corrupt but ultimately socialist government who delivers free things to people.

If that is the case then Modi has a major problem on his hand. If that is the case then Modi's popularity rating will quickly and continuously go down and soon old hands like Nitish, Mulayam will be back in power in their respective states and BJP's rise as a natural party of governance will look much more doubtful. Because while people will continue to punish Congress for a while because of its many many corruption scandals, people in India have shown that they have short memories and they forgive easily. May be they would want to go back to socialism again hoping that Congress has learned its lesson and they would keep corruption in check.

For Modi to avoid this fate (which will be very difficult if people indeed want left wing socialism) he would need to first communicate a lot better than he is doing now. Communicating with people doesn't mean just talking about swachch Bharat, or Make in India but he would also have to explain his motives behind those campaigns. Because while he has never have to explain himself in Gujarat, where people who are business-minded instinctively understood that what is better for the business or economy is better for them, that if he spends time wooing global investors, industrialists, business leaders he is not working for the rich but helping the economy as a whole, that his ultimate objective with those global investor summits was to create jobs, to kick start the economy, but as a PM of India he will have to explain to Indians all this and keep repealing the lie that his government is working for the rich and that he has forgotten the poor common men. Quite the contrary by tirelessly working to get investment from China, USA, Australia or from the local Indian businessmen he is working for the poor and middle class and for everybody. That if the economy grows at 8-9% everyone will benefit and that is his ultimate goal.

He should remind the Indian people of why they loved him in the first place, of his clean scrupulous record of 15 years as a CM of Gujarat. How he has never been accused of any corruption anywhere, how he has no family to support for whom he would collect money, how he has dedicated himself fully to the country living a bachelor life without any children, how his mother continues to live middle class simple life despite him being the PM. All this he will have to keep communicating with the people and remind them that he is working for them, for the poorest of the poor and that contrary to the public perception being created his whole effort whether in Make in India campaign or Land Acquisition Bill, or anything he does is to help poor people, to get people jobs, to get economy growing at 8-9%. He doesn't want any money or favor personally from anybody. He will have to keep repeating this again and again to counter the propaganda of AAP and others in India, especially since lot of his actions (like LAB) by their nature will seem otherwise.

Ultimately though, for Modi, in the end what will matter after 5 years is whether he has been successful or not in doing what he wanted, getting the economy growing at 8-9%. He could get unlucky and outside global factors might prevent him from achieving this and he might lose next election. Or growth might pick up but if he is not effective in communication then the perception might be created that it was because of global factors that growth picked up and that he needs to be removed as he is crony and in bed with rich industrialists.

One thing where his criticism is valid (and this was the criticism in Gujarat too) is that he hasn't focused much on human development, on health and education. Mr. Modi is impatient in getting the economy growing but he needs to understand that ultimately the quality of manpower in the long term will decide the economic fate of the country. For this first thing he needs to do is to get better ministers for education and health. Then even if he doesn't focus on these two areas much the ministers effectively can bring some change. Because an economy needs not just land, electricity, water, effective regulation, freedom from bureaucratic and political harassment but ultimately it needs quality skilled, highly skilled, semi skilled manpower. Modi would be better served to focus on that which would also make him look less pro-rich and would make his socialist-leftist base happy.